Market analysis
Coffee Shop in Boise, ID
Opportunity Score
Medium confidence
Viable with focusDemand score
62
Competition score
53
Population score
100
Income score
92
Growth score
58
Risk score
30
Quick Take
Moderate Opportunity
A coffee shop in Boise, ID scores 64/100.
Market conditions support a new coffee shop, with an estimated average annual revenue of $41,284.
Key Opportunities
- Median household income of $81,308 supports premium pricing.
Key Risks
- Lower barriers to entry may encourage additional competitors.
Key Challenges
- Capturing 246 of the 20,642 target customers in the market.
- Establishing brand awareness in a new market.
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Revenue Potential
Supporting factors Medium confidence
- Population
- 235,701
- Target customers (% of population)
- 8%
- Income adjustment
- ×1.09
- = Target customers in town
- 20,642
- Avg visits (2/month)
- 24
- Avg ticket
- $7
- = Total town market
- $3.47M
- ÷ (83 competitors + you)
- 84
- = Your median revenue
- $41K
Potential customers
246
regular customers / yr
Annual revenue
$41K
median estimate
Revenue Simulator
Average transaction$7
Customers per day180
Daily
$1K
Monthly
$38K
Annual
$454K
above market high
Competition
Market appears
Balanced
249 expected customers per competitor · one location needs ~280
Source: Estimated from industry density benchmarks
Competitors
83
room for ~67.3
Saturation
High
123% of capacity
Strength
46
competitor quality
UnderservedSaturated
Gemini Competition Estimate
Town Data
Population
235,701
Growth
+1%
per year
Median income
$81K
Households
99,616
Business density
20.5
per 1,000 residents
Gemini Market Analysis
How We Calculated This
Town data: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2023 5-year (Boise City city, Idaho). Competitors: Estimated from industry density benchmarks. Business assumptions for coffee shop come from our editable assumptions table.
Estimated Population
235,701
High confidence
Estimated Households
99,616
High confidence
Median Income
$81,308
High confidence
Population Growth
1% / yr
High confidence
Estimated Target Customers
20,642
Medium confidenceFrom business assumptions
Competitor Count
83
Medium confidenceEstimated from industry density benchmarks
Customers per Competitor
249
Medium confidenceBalanced
Market Saturation Score
53/100
Medium confidenceHigh
Opportunity Score formula
Opportunity = 0.2 × Demand + 0.45 × Competition
+ 0.1 × Population + 0.1 × Income + 0.15 × Growth| Factor | Score | Weight | Points | How it's scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitor density | 53 | 45% | 23.9 | 20,642 target customers ÷ 83 competitors = 249 per competitor, vs. ~280 one location needs (ratio 0.89). Score = ratio × 60. |
| Demand | 62 | 20% | 12.4 | Your share (246 customers) vs. the ~280 one location typically needs. 100% of need = 70 points. |
| Population | 100 | 10% | 10 | 235,701 residents on a log scale (5,000 = 30 points, ~50,000 = 75). |
| Median income | 92 | 10% | 9.2 | $81,308 vs. a $55,000 baseline. |
| Population growth | 58 | 15% | 8.7 | 1% per year. Score = 40 + growth × 18. |
| Opportunity Score | 64 |
Confidence: High = live Census or Google Places data · Medium = industry benchmarks applied to census data · Low = modeled town data or generic business assumptions.
5-year revenue outlook
FAQ: Coffee Shop in Boise, ID
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