Market analysis
Coffee Shop in Bozeman, MT
Opportunity Score
Medium confidence
Strong marketDemand score
75
Competition score
69
Population score
77
Income score
90
Growth score
100
Risk score
18
Quick Take
Strong Opportunity
A coffee shop in Bozeman, MT scores 78/100.
Market conditions support a new coffee shop, with an estimated average annual revenue of $50,379.
Key Opportunities
- Annual population growth of 4.1% supports a steadily expanding customer base.
- Median household income of $79,903 supports premium pricing.
Key Risks
- Lower barriers to entry may encourage additional competitors.
Key Challenges
- Capturing 300 of the 4,798 target customers in the market.
- Establishing brand awareness in a new market.
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Revenue Potential
Supporting factors Medium confidence
- Population
- 55,042
- Target customers (% of population)
- 8%
- Income adjustment
- ×1.09
- = Target customers in town
- 4,798
- Avg visits (2/month)
- 24
- Avg ticket
- $7
- = Total town market
- $806K
- ÷ (15 competitors + you)
- 16
- = Your median revenue
- $50K
Potential customers
300
regular customers / yr
Annual revenue
$50K
median estimate
Revenue Simulator
Average transaction$7
Customers per day180
Daily
$1K
Monthly
$38K
Annual
$454K
above market high
Competition
Market appears
Balanced
320 expected customers per competitor · one location needs ~280
Source: Estimated from industry density benchmarks
Competitors
15
room for ~15.7
Saturation
Moderate
95% of capacity
Strength
41
competitor quality
UnderservedSaturated
Gemini Competition Estimate
Town Data
Population
55,042
Growth
+4.1%
per year
Median income
$80K
Households
23,131
Business density
31.4
per 1,000 residents
Gemini Market Analysis
How We Calculated This
Town data: U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2023 5-year (Bozeman city, Montana). Competitors: Estimated from industry density benchmarks. Business assumptions for coffee shop come from our editable assumptions table.
Estimated Population
55,042
High confidence
Estimated Households
23,131
High confidence
Median Income
$79,903
High confidence
Population Growth
4.1% / yr
High confidence
Estimated Target Customers
4,798
Medium confidenceFrom business assumptions
Competitor Count
15
Medium confidenceEstimated from industry density benchmarks
Customers per Competitor
320
Medium confidenceBalanced
Market Saturation Score
69/100
Medium confidenceModerate
Opportunity Score formula
Opportunity = 0.2 × Demand + 0.45 × Competition
+ 0.1 × Population + 0.1 × Income + 0.15 × Growth| Factor | Score | Weight | Points | How it's scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitor density | 69 | 45% | 31.1 | 4,798 target customers ÷ 15 competitors = 320 per competitor, vs. ~280 one location needs (ratio 1.14). Score = ratio × 60. |
| Demand | 75 | 20% | 15 | Your share (300 customers) vs. the ~280 one location typically needs. 100% of need = 70 points. |
| Population | 77 | 10% | 7.7 | 55,042 residents on a log scale (5,000 = 30 points, ~50,000 = 75). |
| Median income | 90 | 10% | 9 | $79,903 vs. a $55,000 baseline. |
| Population growth | 100 | 15% | 15 | 4.1% per year. Score = 40 + growth × 18. |
| Opportunity Score | 78 |
Confidence: High = live Census or Google Places data · Medium = industry benchmarks applied to census data · Low = modeled town data or generic business assumptions.
5-year revenue outlook
FAQ: Coffee Shop in Bozeman, MT
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